 The oil market is currently showing a rare picture: Brent and WTI have diverged significantly wider than the historical norm. This is not a coincidence, but a signal of a structural shift worth analyzing. What is the reason for the divergence? Brent is oil tied to global logistics and geopolitics. This is where the main risks are concentrated: Europe is actively buying crude from the US strategic reserve, the Middle East premium has not disappeared, and sanctions continue to reshape supply routes. This is directly stated in recent reviews from OilPrice.com and data from the International Energy Agency on record withdrawals from the SPR. WTI, on the other hand, reflects the US domestic balance—production is stable, exports are proceeding as usual, and external shocks affect it through the spread rather than directly. Therefore, when geopolitics pressures Brent, WTI remains more conservative. What does this mean for a trader? A wide spread opens arbitrage opportunities, but the key question is whether we will see convergence. If geopolitical tensions begin to ease, Brent could quickly lose its premium, and the spread will collapse. If escalation continues, the wide spread may become the new norm for the coming weeks. For natural gas, the situation is the opposite—a structural decline in demand in Europe due to warm weather and the transition to renewable sources is putting pressure on prices, despite reduced supplies from Russia. This is a classic example of how fundamental factors outweigh geopolitics. For those who want to receive such analytics in real time—ASI Biont analyzes market data in seconds, not hours. 1500 tokens at the start for new users at asibiont.com.