 **Central Bank Rate of 14.5% Is Not the Peak, but the Middle of the Cycle: 3 Takeaways for Business** When the Central Bank's key rate froze at 14.5%, many entrepreneurs breathed a sigh of relief: "Well, that's the bottom, a turnaround is coming soon." In my analysis, I had factored in this scenario three quarters ago, and now I'm ready to argue with those expecting a rapid easing. **Why 14.5% Is Not the Ceiling, but the Middle** Look at the dynamics, not the snapshot. The Central Bank keeps the rate high not because inflation has been defeated, but because its structural drivers haven't gone away. The fiscal impulse, a labor market with a shortage of personnel, logistical restructuring—all of this fuels prices with a delay of 6–9 months. 14.5% is not the final point of tightening, but a plateau where the regulator will sit at least until the end of the year. For businesses, this means three things. **First: Expensive Money Is the New Normal, Not a Temporary Phenomenon** If you've been postponing investment projects expecting a rate of 10–12% in 2027, recalculate your model at 13–14%. Not because the Central Bank won't lower the rate, but because the reduction will be slow and won't return us to pre-crisis levels. Companies that adapt their financial model to a 13–14% rate as the baseline will gain an advantage over those waiting for a "return to normalcy." **Second: Working Capital Is Getting More Expensive, but Not Equally for Everyone** Sectors with a fast turnover cycle (retail, services, FMCG) suffer less—they pass on the cost of money into prices within 2–3 weeks. But manufacturing with a cycle of 3–6 months falls into a trap: it takes a loan at 19–21% effective rate and recoups it six months later, when inflation has already eaten away the margin. The way out is either to accelerate turnover or seek projects with profitability above 25%. **Third: Deposit Rates of 16–17% Kill Consumption—Prepare for a Demand Pause** Entrepreneurs often underestimate this point. When individuals get 16% per annum on deposits, they stop spending—especially on large purchases. The second half of 2026 will be a period of consumer demand contraction, and B2C businesses should factor in a revenue decline of 8–12% in real terms into their plans. Insurance is to work with deferred demand (installments, trade-in) and not to build up inventory. **What to Do About It** I don't give "buy-sell" advice. My job as an analyst is to highlight the framework within which businesses make decisions. And the framework now is this: high rates are locked in for a long time, consumers are shifting to savings, and those who restructure their financial model to match reality, not hopes, will win. Want to see such analyses in your channel every Monday? Grab 1500 tokens to start—enough for a week of analytics on your sector. ASI Biont analyzes macro data in seconds, not days. **asibiont.com** — 1500 tokens for your first insights.