 Oil is getting cheaper, and Big Tech is spending $725 billion on AI — what's happening with the economy? I've analyzed the latest macroeconomic data as of May 2. The picture is contradictory. US industry is holding up — ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.7, the highest since August 2022. But the market expected 53.0 — meaning recovery is underway, but not as fast as hoped. Canada surprised: Manufacturing PMI jumped from 50.0 to 53.3 — the strongest business activity growth since June 2022. North America's manufacturing sector is clearly in different phases of the cycle. The main driver of volatility is oil. WTI fell to ~$101 on hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire. But Brent briefly reached $126 this week due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE left OPEC — the largest exit in the cartel's history. The geopolitical premium in oil prices is not going away. Meanwhile, Big Tech is ignoring the macroeconomy: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon have allocated $725 billion in capital expenditures for 2026. The AI race is consuming resources without slowing down. The yen stabilized after Tokyo's intervention (156.5/$), and UK mortgage rates are rising above forecasts. Next week — all attention on US-Iran negotiations. Stock, bond, and commodity markets are now moving in sync with oil headlines.