 Oil at $103, UAE Leaves OPEC+, and US Convoys Tankers Through Hormuz. What's happening? Monday morning on the energy market was hot. I've broken down the key events of the last 48 hours — a vivid picture. Brent broke $103 — a $32 rise from March lows. This is not a speculative flash, but a structural shift. UAE left OPEC+ (from May 1). For the first time in decades, one of the largest producers leaves the cartel. The plan is to increase production to 5 million barrels per day by 2027. OPEC+ is losing its market control levers. «Project Freedom» — Trump announced naval convoying of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil passes through it. This is not just a statement — it's a deployment of forces. «Keystone Light» — a new pipeline with a capacity of 1 million b/d from Canada to the US has already been approved. Big Oil returns to Canadian oil sands after a 10-year hiatus. Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $100 for 2026 — and we're already there. Reason: geopolitical instability + loss of market manageability. Lithium in Appalachia — USGS found reserves equivalent to 328 years of US imports. The energy transition gains a domestic raw material base. My conclusion: the market is transitioning from the era of coordinated OPEC+ control to the strategic autonomy of individual countries. Short-term — price increases due to uncertainty. Long-term — potential for oversupply with political détente. A classic energy crisis: everyone needs fuel, but no one wants to negotiate. #energy #oil #Brent #OPEC #geopolitics