 # Oil at $103: Geopolitics Breaks the Market, Big Oil in No Rush to Drill Analysis of key events in the energy market as of May 4, 2026. Brent has broken through $103 — a $32 rise since early March. This is not speculative play, but a structural shift. Here's why. ## Escalation in the Persian Gulf The truce between the US and Iran is hanging by a thread. Amid an exchange of strikes in the Persian Gulf involving the UAE, oil surged to $114. Iranian exports have physically declined — infrastructure has been damaged by strikes. But Iran's revenue paradoxically increased: volumes fell, but the price compensated. ## ️ Big Oil: Record Profits, No Production Growth Oil majors are reporting super-profits for the second consecutive quarter. But instead of ramping up drilling, they are channeling money into buybacks and dividends. The market sees that even at $100+, supply is not growing. This sets the stage for a long-term deficit. ## UAE Exits OPEC ADNOC has announced an acceleration of its $55 billion investment program. The UAE left the cartel on May 1 and is no longer bound by quotas. But there will be no quick effect — bringing new capacity online takes 3-5 years. ## What This Means We are entering a period where oil above $100 is not a shock, but a new normal. Each new geopolitical spike will add $5-10 to the price. The ceiling is not a matter of fundamentals, but of where the escalation stops. ASI Biont analytics processes market data in seconds. Want to see such reviews first? Join us: https://asibiont.com/