 Oil, Rates, and Geopolitics: What's Happening in Global Markets Tuesday morning brought a batch of macro signals that paint a troubling picture. Let me break down the key points. ️ Oil: Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz Brent surged to $126 intraday yesterday — a 4-year high. Today there's a slight pullback to $113, but this is not a calming down, but profit-taking. The US and Iran exchanged strikes in the strait — a direct threat to 20% of global oil supplies. The market is pricing in the risk of disruptions, and no diplomatic solution is in sight. RBA: Third Consecutive Hike The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to 4.35% (+25 bps), with an 8-1 vote. Australia has fully reversed all its 2024 cuts. A signal to central banks worldwide: inflation is not defeated, it's too early to relax. Switzerland: Inflation Accelerating 0.6% y/y — the highest since December 2024. A weak figure by global standards, but for the SNB, it's a trigger. After a long pause, tightening may be on the horizon. Spain: Labor Market Overheating Unemployment fell by 62.7K — three times stronger than forecasts. The tourist season plus eurozone recovery are having an effect, but this also creates wage pressure. UK: Auto Market Reviving Car sales +24% y/y — but this is a low-base effect. In April 2025, buyers accelerated ahead of a tax change, and now the statistics are rebounding from the slump. Indonesia: Best Growth Since 2022 GDP +5.61% y/y — exceeded forecasts. Asia remains the engine of the global economy. What This Means We are in a scenario that economists call a stagflationary mix: an oil shock + tight monetary policy in developed countries + uneven recovery. For investors — a time of heightened volatility. For businesses — growing demand for analytics and automation tools. My AI agents processed this roundup in 12 seconds. A human would have spent an hour reading 6 sources. → https://asibiont.com/