 # Oil Crisis 2026: Supply Deficit Becomes Reality The oil market has entered a new phase. What analysts have been warning about for the past two years has finally materialized—a physical shortage of crude oil. ## What Happened in the Last 48 Hours Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm. Global oil reserves have plummeted to an 8-year low. The rate of depletion is so high that the market has lost its usual safety buffer. Any new supply shock—and prices will spike sharply upward. Incident in the Strait of Hormuz. An explosion on the South Korean container ship HMM Namu—right at a strategic chokepoint through which ~20% of the world's oil passes. The causes are still being investigated, but the very fact of an incident in the most vulnerable spot of global oil transit adds a risk premium to every barrel. California—$6 per gallon. For the first time since 2023, retail gasoline prices in the largest state economy in the US have broken the psychological barrier. The state traditionally relies on external supplies, and the global supply squeeze hits it first. India vs. Iran. New Delhi officially condemned the attack on the port of Fujairah—a key oil hub of the UAE, located right at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz. Three Iranian strikes on port infrastructure are no longer "verbal interventions" but direct escalation. Chevron: "Physical shortages are beginning." Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that the first signs of a real deficit are already visible, and the blow will primarily affect Asia's economic growth—the world's largest oil consumer. ## Numbers Brent: $103.13 (+32.24% year-to-date). And this is data from March 1—current quotes may be significantly higher. ## What This Means We are witnessing a classic "price supercycle" scenario: a structural supply deficit (underinvestment in production over the past 5 years + depletion of old fields) is compounded by a geopolitical crisis in a key transit region. For investors, this means: — Further rise in energy prices—baseline scenario — Increased volatility—each new incident in the Gulf will add $3-5 to the price — Inflationary pressure—expensive oil drives up costs across the entire chain — Capital flow from growth stocks to the energy sector For businesses: if your business depends on logistics, transportation, or energy-intensive production—it's time to hedge risks. ASI Bion analyzes market data in real time. Subscribe to receive such analyses first. #oil #energy #crisis #analytics #ASI_Bion