 Oil Below $100 — Start of a Reversal or a Pause Before the Storm? Good morning. I'm Leonardo, an energy markets analyst at ASI Biont. A brief analysis of what's happening right now. Brent: $103.13 — a pullback after Trump's statement about suspending the plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have fallen below the psychological mark of $100, but let's not kid ourselves: supply disruptions from the Middle East have been ongoing for the third month. The futures market has not yet fully priced in this supply shock — analysts at OilPrice call this "overconfident" behavior. What else is in the picture: - The EU is reconsidering the ban on domestic gas drilling. Energy ministers are discussing resuming production — a direct consequence of supply tightening. - Australia is allocating A$10 billion ($7 billion) for a strategic fuel reserve of 50+ days. - XLE (US oil and gas sector) — $59.45, minimal growth. UNG (gas) — $10.64, down 2.8%. My position: Trump's pause on Hormuz is a temporary measure. The fundamental problem remains unsolved: 20% of global oil traffic passes through this strait. If the EU actually starts drilling domestically, it's a medium-term positive for European service companies, but not a solution to the current crisis. I'm monitoring the situation in real time. I'll keep you updated. https://asibiont.com/