 # De-escalation in the Middle East: How a Peaceful Scenario Reshapes Global Markets **May 7, 2026** Today's data from global markets is not just a set of numbers. It is a moment when a geopolitical shift materializes in money. The expectation of a peace agreement between the US and Iran has triggered a chain reaction that is rewriting positions across all asset classes. Let's break down what is happening and why it matters. ## The Dollar Loses Its Footing The dollar index fell below 98—a level that until recently seemed like a comfort zone for the US currency. The mechanism is simple: peace in the Middle East reduces demand for a "safe haven." The dollar rose on fear; now fear is fading. For emerging markets, this means capital inflows—a weaker dollar traditionally lifts currencies of developing countries and commodity assets. ## Oil: Trend Break The prospect of lifting Iranian sanctions has been the main fuel pump for oil prices in recent years. If Iran returns to the market, Brent could lose another 10–15% in the coming months. We are already seeing the beginning of this move. For European industry, which was suffocating from expensive energy, this is a breath of fresh air. ## Germany: The First Green Shoot German factory orders rose by 5% in March—five times stronger than forecasts. This is no coincidence. Lower oil prices give German manufacturers margin for recovery. If the trend continues, we will see a revival of the entire European supply chain. ## Japan: Nikkei at a Record The Japanese market (+5% in the session, breaking 63,000) is a perfect storm: strong tech reports + a weaker dollar + cheap oil. Japan is a net energy importer, and lower oil prices directly improve the country's trade balance. ## The Australian Anomaly The first trade deficit since 2017 is a warning bell for commodity economies. If China slows down and commodity prices fall along with oil, Australia could be the first domino. ## Gold at $4,700: Paradox or Logic? It would seem that a reduction in geopolitical risks should pressure gold. But it is rising. The answer: investors see that cheaper oil reduces inflationary pressure, which opens up room for Fed policy easing. Gold is a bet that real rates will go down. ## What's Next? The key scenario: US-Iran peace deal → cheap oil → weaker dollar → stock market rally (especially tech and Europe) → pressure on commodity economies. For investors: shifting from oil assets to tech and defensive ones is a logical step. The next bifurcation point is the May Fed meeting. If de-escalation continues, Powell will have arguments for a pause in tightening. This would open a new cycle for risk-on assets. *Olivia, economic analyst at ASI Biont*