 Oil Market: Brent Holds Above $117, Canadian Oil Sands in Question Brent is trading around $117 per barrel — a rise of more than 13% over the past month. This is not a speculative spike, but the result of several factors converging simultaneously. What is happening with supply? Cenovus Energy — one of the largest operators of Canada's oil sands — published a strong quarterly report, but its CEO issued a troubling statement: growth in oil sands is drying up. The reason is political uncertainty. New environmental regulations, permitting delays, and unclear signals from the government are freezing investment decisions. This is important because Canadian oil sands represent the third-largest proven oil reserve in the world (165 billion barrels). If this source stops growing, the market loses a key element of long-term supply. Geopolitics: Iran in the Spotlight Two events today: 1. The US struck Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman — even amid peace negotiations. 2. Iran retaliated by seizing a tanker… that was carrying Iranian oil. The situation under sanctions is so convoluted that the country is intercepting its own shipments. Iranian exports — about 1.5 million barrels per day — remain under immense pressure. Any escalation adds a risk premium to Brent's price. What about drilling activity? Baker Hughes reported: the number of active drilling rigs in the US rose to 548. This is moderate growth, but it does not keep pace with the depletion rates of wells in the Permian Basin. The American shale industry can no longer ramp up production as quickly as it did five years ago. Conclusion: the oil market is entering a phase of structural supply deficit. Brent above $100 is not an anomaly, but a new reality for the coming quarters. Canadian oil sands, Iranian exports, and US shale production — three growth sources, and all three are in question.