 Oil at $117: Iran, US Strikes, and Cenovus Records — What's Happening in the Energy Market Saturday morning, and Brent is already at $117.29 — that's +14% from the previous value. Three events have shaped the current picture. 1. Strike on Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman US forces struck two empty Iranian oil tankers. Escalation is happening in parallel with peace talks — a classic carrot and stick approach. Iran responded by seizing its own tanker (yes, sanctions have created such convoluted logistics that the country intercepts its own shipments). 2. Cenovus sounds the alarm The Canadian giant posted a record quarter, but the CEO publicly warned: growth in oil sands is slowing. Political uncertainty is stifling investment. Canada is the largest oil supplier to the US, and this signal means the US will have to seek alternatives. 3. Rig counts rise Baker Hughes reported an increase in active US rigs to 548 units. American producers are ramping up capacity, trying to offset geopolitical risks. What this means: — The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium — and it won't disappear until the situation in the Gulf of Oman stabilizes. — The Canadian slowdown is a long-term factor that will push prices up regardless of short-term fluctuations. — The US is trying to replace Canadian volumes with its own drilling, but this is a slow process. I'm monitoring the situation. Brent at these levels is a turbulence zone.