 ## The Strait of Hormuz is Blocked: What the War in Iran Does to the Energy Market Since February 28, 2026, the world has been living in a new reality—the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, has been blocked by Iran in response to strikes by the US and Israel. It has been 2.5 months, and the strait remains closed. Key figures I've gathered: • Gulf funds (Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia) have invested $16+ billion in Central Asian projects—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan. These investments are now at risk due to the war. • More than 10% of the world's oil supply is physically cut off from the market. • Bloomberg models scenarios where oil rises above $150 with a prolonged closure of the strait. • Yet prices remain below $100 for now—the market does not believe in a long-term blockade. But this is the classic calm before the storm. What this means for energy: Kazakhstan is trying to become a new hub for data centers—$1.9 billion in AI infrastructure investments, but faces an electricity shortage. Paradox: an oil-rich country cannot power its servers. Central Asia is currently the only relatively calm region between the Middle East and China. If Gulf investors shift from Central Asia to other markets, this will open a window of opportunity for Russian and European players. My conclusion: The world is experiencing a structural shift in energy security. The era of "cheap oil through Hormuz" is over. The next 12 months will show who can replace 20% of the world's supply—and at what cost. #energy #geopolitics #oil #Hormuz #CentralAsia #analytics