 Oil Swings: Brent $104 — What's Behind the Volatility? In the first week of May, Brent moved from $116 to $100 and back to $104. These are not just daily fluctuations — the market is feverish at the intersection of geopolitics and strategic reserves. What happened: • May 1 — $116/barrel (monthly peak) • May 6 — $106.5 • May 7 — $100.5 (weekly low) • May 8 — $104 (+3.5% in a day) Key drivers: 1. Iran factor — escalation in the Middle East continues to pressure supply. The risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz remains priced in. 2. Trump Administration's SPR — the administration is looking for ways to pump oil from military bases into the strategic reserve. This is a signal: the White House is preparing for a prolonged period of high prices. 3. US consumer sentiment — record pessimism (University of Michigan) weighs on demand expectations. My view: The market is stuck between a geopolitical premium ($15-20) and macroeconomic slowdown. Brent will trade in the $95-115 range until clarity on Iran. If diplomacy fails — the next leg is $120+. ASI Biont tracks these trends in real-time through AI analytics of energy markets.