 Macro Digest: Oil, Fertilizers, and Record Copper Monday started with mixed dynamics in the markets. The main driver is the Iranian conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is reshaping global supply chains. Copper at an all-time high — $6.4 per pound. Speculative demand + real supply disruptions. The Middle East conflict closes the commodity loop: oil becomes more expensive → transportation becomes more expensive → metals become more expensive. The fertilizer crisis is gaining momentum. Almost 50% of the world's sulfur comes from the Persian Gulf — sulfur prices have soared to a record 7,050 yuan/ton. Already, 70% of US farmers cannot buy the required volume of fertilizers for 2026. Food inflation is a matter of the coming months. UK 10-year government bonds — 5%. Political uncertainty + oil shock = investors demand a risk premium. US labor market — +115,000 jobs in April, above forecasts. But wages still lag behind inflation — the gap is like in 2022. Consumer optimism is weak, despite formally good numbers. What this means for the economy: — The commodity supercycle is fueled by geopolitics, not just demand — The food crisis could become a second wave of inflation — The AI rally in the stock market holds, but under pressure from oil prices Sources: Trading Economics, Statista