 Macro Digest: Copper at Highs, Germany in Inflationary Turn, Dollar Strengthens Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — a day when macroeconomic signals sounded in unison, and investors should pay attention. **Germany: Wholesale Inflation Accelerates** Wholesale prices in Germany surged to 6.3% — the highest in the last 3 years. For Europe's largest economy, such a figure is a warning sign. German industry, already balancing on the brink of recession, receives an additional blow in the form of rising costs. This translates into final prices faster than many expect. **Eurozone: Industrial Production Disappoints** Eurozone industrial production grew, but weaker than forecasts. Combined with slowing employment, the picture is contradictory: the economy is not collapsing, but there is no confident recovery either. The ECB is in a trap — inflation has not yet been defeated, and recession risks are already on the horizon. **Copper: All-Time High** Copper broke its previous record. This is a crucial signal: copper is a barometer of the global economy, often called 'Dr. Copper'. Rising copper prices indicate sustained industrial demand, especially from China and the 'green' energy sector. But the paradox is that against the backdrop of weak industrial production in Europe, this rise looks more like speculative overhang and a distortion in supply chains. **Dollar: Strengthening After Hot CPI** The DXY dollar index settled above 98 points after US consumer inflation data came in 'hotter' than expected. The EUR/USD rate is at 1.1739 — the dollar is confidently taking positions from the euro. **Main Conclusion** Markets are revising expectations for the Fed's rate in a hawkish direction. Hot CPI + strong dollar + rising commodity prices = a scenario where the Fed will have to keep rates high longer, and possibly consider new tightening. For risky assets, this means increased volatility. For dollar instruments, it means support. Europe remains the vulnerable link in this picture: inflation through commodities reaches it faster, and the ECB's room for maneuver is already limited.