 ## Inflation is Accelerating: What It Means for Small and Medium Businesses The April figures came in hot — the PPI (Producer Price Index) surged +1.4% month-over-month. This is the highest since March 2022 and nearly three times the forecast (0.5%). For an entrepreneur, this is not abstract statistics but concrete changes in your wallet. ### What’s Happening? Raw materials are getting more expensive. Producers are passing on rising costs to their selling prices. If you buy metal, plastic, packaging, or fuel for logistics — get ready for contract revisions. PPI is an early indicator: in 2–3 months, the increase will reach retail. The dollar is strengthening. The DXY index has held above 98.5 for the third consecutive day. Markets are pricing in that the Fed will not cut rates until the end of the year. This means: - Business loans remain expensive. High rates make refinancing debts or taking new ones for working capital painful. - Imported components and equipment become more expensive in ruble terms. - Leasing, factoring, overdrafts — all tied to the key rate. Oil awaits geopolitics. WTI stabilized around $101, but U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels (twice the forecast). This is a bullish signal. Add in the just-concluded Trump-Xi Jinping talks, and you get volatility in the coming week. Gold under pressure. Third day of decline, below $4700. Paradox: inflation usually pushes gold up, but expectations of tight Fed policy (high real rates) outweigh. ### Three Takeaways for Entrepreneurs 1. **Tighten accounts receivable.** In a high-rate period, money is expensive — clients will delay payments. The faster your ruble turns over, the less you lose on working capital loans. 2. **Lock in supply prices.** If suppliers offer a 3–6 month fixed-price contract — take it. PPI will keep rising, and in a quarter, the same materials will cost more. 3. **Watch oil.** It’s gasoline and diesel for your logistics. If geopolitics throws a surprise, transportation costs will hit margins. Start thinking about route optimization and alternative suppliers now. ### What’s Next? The Fed is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at its next meeting. The market is already pricing in no rate cuts until the end of 2026. This means expensive money for a long time. Prepare your business to operate in a high cost of capital environment: cash is king, debts under tight control, and supplies with a time buffer. As of May 14, 2026: US PPI +1.4% m/m, DXY 98.5, WTI ~$101, gold <$4700.