 Oil above $104, Treasuries at yearly highs, and US industry unexpectedly accelerates — what's happening? Friday's macroeconomic summary points to divergent trends. On one hand, inflation risks from geopolitics are weighing on markets. On the other, the real sector shows resilience. Key figures today: WTI oil — $104/barrel (+3% for the day, +9% for the week). The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supply is tightening. 10-year Treasury yield — 4.6%. Yearly high. Markets are pricing in war-driven inflation. US industrial production — +0.7% in April. Best growth in 14 months. Expected +0.3%. NY Empire State Manufacturing — 19.6 points vs. forecast of 7.5. New York's industrial activity grows at the fastest pace in 4 years. Russia's GDP — -0.2% in Q1 2026. First decline in 3 years. Pound fell below $1.34 — political uncertainty in Britain weighs on the currency. A mixed picture: inflationary pressure on commodities and yields, but US industry ignores rates and grows. For investors — time to reassess defensive positions. Data: Trading Economics, May 15, 2026