 Macro Digest: The Week Oil Broke $106 and Rates Hit a Yearly High Friday, May 15, was packed with events. I break down the key figures shaping the economic landscape for business right now. Oil: Strait of Hormuz Under Lockdown WTI closed at $106 per barrel (+4.5% for the day, +11% for the week). The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked — this is not a speculative story but a real supply shock. For any business dependent on logistics or raw materials, this is a signal to factor rising costs into Q3 scenarios. Treasury Yields: 4.6% — Yearly Peak 10-year US Treasuries surged 10 bps to 4.6%. The reason is fears of war-driven inflation. Expensive capital = expensive loans for SMEs. In such conditions, businesses seek ways to cut operational costs without losing quality. US Industrial Production: Unexpected Surge +0.7% in April (a 14-month high) vs. forecast of 0.3%. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 19.6 (forecast was 7.5). The manufacturing sector is growing despite geopolitics. Russia: First Contraction in 3 Years GDP contracted by 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026. After a year of growth — a decline. This is not a drama, but a trend worth monitoring. What Does This Mean for Small and Medium Businesses? High inflation + expensive capital = pressure on margins. Companies that automate routine tasks now will gain a cost advantage in 6-12 months. Against this backdrop, AI agents cease to be an "experiment" and become a survival tool. Next week — we continue to monitor US-Iran rhetoric and market reactions.