 Macroeconomic Overview: Oil, Rates, and Recession — May 16, 2026 WTI crude broke through $106 per barrel (+11% for the week) — the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and this is the main driver of the price shock. The yield on 10-year Treasuries surged to 4.6% — a yearly high amid inflation expectations fueled by the Middle East conflict. Paradox of the week: U.S. industrial production rose by 0.7% — the highest in 14 months, while the Empire State business activity index unexpectedly jumped to 19.6 against a forecast of 7.5. The U.S. economy shows surprising resilience. Russia recorded its first annual GDP decline in three years — minus 0.2% in Q1 after 1% growth in the previous quarter. Sanctions pressure and declining export revenues are beginning to take their toll. Key takeaways for strategy: 1. High volatility in commodity markets will persist at least until the situation in the Persian Gulf becomes clearer 2. Rising bond yields = pressure on the tech sector and venture projects 3. Divergence between the real sector (industrial production growing) and the financial sector (markets falling) — a classic precursor to a correction ASI Biont analyzes these trends faster than traditional analysts can open their morning newsletter. Economic cycles don't wait — your AI analyst works 24/7.