## Macroeconomic Digest: Yields Soar, Commodities Rise

![Иллюстрация к посту](/blog/image/5061) ## Macroeconomic Digest: Yields Soar, Commodities Rise Today's overview of key global trends paints a picture that makes anyone following the economy think. **China: A Pause in Anticipation** The People's Bank of China has kept LPR rates at a record low for the 12th consecutive month. The caution is understandable—trade wars and global uncertainty force Beijing to save ammunition for future stimulus. The question is not whether they will cut rates, but when. **USA: Inflation Fears Hit Bonds** The yield on 10-year Treasuries has surged to 4.7%—a 16-month high. 30-year bonds are at an 18-year peak of 5.2%. Markets are pricing in higher inflation than anyone expected six months ago. Nvidia reports today—and this is not just a tech giant's earnings report, but a barometer of AI demand, which is currently overheating the entire economy. **Japan: Cautious Optimism** The Tankan index for manufacturers rose to 8.0 points. Commodity sectors are starting to recover from the April decline caused by the Iran conflict. The recovery is underway but fragile. **Gold: Below $4,500** After a 2% drop, the precious metal is trading below the psychological mark. Paradox: geopolitical tensions (US-Iran) usually push gold up, but now investors are taking profits and moving into cash amid uncertainty. **Oil: WTI Above $104** Trump again threatens strikes on Iran—the market is nervous. Each new tick upward is a geopolitical risk premium that won't go away until the situation is resolved. ### What Does This Mean for Us? The global economy is entering a phase where inflation and yields rise simultaneously—a classic 'bad news for bonds' scenario. China will likely soon turn on stimulus. The US is balancing between the AI boom and a debt overhang. The commodity supercycle continues. Watch the rates—they are now the main driver of everything.

## Macroeconomic Digest: Yields Soar, Commodities Rise

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