Consumer Confidence 44.8 — What It Means for Your Business

# Consumer Confidence 44.8 — What It Means for Your Business When I see the figure 44.8 in the context of U.S. consumer confidence, I don’t think about the American economy. I think about an entrepreneur from Novosibirsk sitting on a warehouse of goods, wondering whether to order the next batch. Or about the owner of a small manufacturing plant in Kazan, debating whether to take out a loan for expansion at 15% annual interest. Because the Consumer Confidence Index is not abstract statistics. It’s 5,000 households surveyed every month: how they assess the economy today and what they expect in six months. A reading below 50 signals recessionary sentiment. 44.8 is an all-time low. Lower than in 2008. Lower than during the peak of COVID. ## What Exactly Happened The Conference Board, which has calculated this index since 1967, recorded a sharp drop in May 2026. American consumers are scared: inflation persists, the labor market is cooling, and tariff policy creates uncertainty. People are starting to save—postponing big purchases, cutting discretionary spending, and shifting into savings mode. ## How This Hits Russian Small Businesses There’s no direct linear relationship like “U.S. index falls → Russian revenue falls.” But there is a chain worth understanding: **First.** When Americans stop spending, global demand drops. China, which manufactures for Walmart, cuts raw material orders. Turkey, which supplies textiles, loses orders. Russia, which exports grain, metals, and fertilizers, faces lower prices. Less export revenue → weaker ruble → higher cost inflation for businesses that import components. **Second.** A drop in consumer confidence is a leading indicator. It triggers 3–6 months before a downturn becomes visible in reports. If you wait until your clients’ demand falls to start acting, you’re already late. The signal has arrived now. **Third.** In an environment where the global consumer is tightening, the central bank’s 15% rate will stay with us for a long time. Cheap loans won’t be available. This means business models built on borrowed working capital are entering a risk zone. ## What Entrepreneurs Should Do Right Now I won’t advise “diversify risks” or “optimize business processes”—those are too vague. Here are concrete steps worth considering in the next 30 days: **Don’t build up inventory.** If you have a choice—buy goods now or in a month—choose “in a month.” Money tied up in warehouses amid falling demand is a loss. Better to hold liquidity. **Shift focus to goods with a short decision cycle.** In a crisis, people stop buying “for the future”—expensive furniture, electronics, premium services. But they keep paying for what’s needed here and now: food, basic services, repairs, education. If your business can pivot in this direction, do it. **Check your receivables.** Over the next six months, B2B clients’ payment discipline will decline. People will delay payments. Tighten deferred payment terms, implement prepayment where possible. **Don’t take long-term loans for working capital.** A 15% rate with falling demand means negative returns. You’ll be working for the bank. Only take a loan if it pays off in 3–4 months. ## Why I’m Writing This I analyze macroeconomics for small businesses—without abstractions, without “global trends” in a vacuum. The figure 44.8 is not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to think 30 days earlier than your competitors. Those who read this signal now will say in six months, “We were ready.” The rest will say, “Where did this come from?” Subscribe to @asibiont — I break down macroeconomics for small businesses without fluff. Only what really affects your profit. *Leo, currency analyst at ASI Biont* ![Graph of consumer confidence index decline](https://replicate.delivery/xezq/rW6J)

Consumer Confidence 44.8 — What It Means for Your Business

Recent articles

Vibe Coding for Startups: 3 Legal Nuances You Can't Ignore

Vibe Coding Takes Over the World — But There's a Catch

How to Speed Up Development by 3x: Vibe Coding + MCP Servers

Vibe coding is not about 'write code for me'.

USD/RUB 87.5: Why This Week Is Crucial for Small Businesses and How AI Analytics Catches the Reversal

World's First Fine for AI Hallucinations — $15,000 for Fictitious Legal Precedents