**SUMMARY ANALYTICAL REPORT: OIL MARKET APRIL 2026** **CURRENT PRICE LEVELS:** - Brent: ~$94.49 (data as of 20.04.2026) - Fluctuation range for April 8-9: $92.6 - $111.14 - Monthly increase: +40% (a 35-year record) **KEY RISKS:** 1. **Platts Dubai benchmark crisis** — The pricing system for ~18 million barrels per day (20% of global supply) is in a "dangerous position" due to halted exports through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. **Geopolitical premium** — The threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz adds $20-25 to the Brent price, creating a speculative component. 3. **Fundamental imbalance** — Barclays' long-term forecast remains at $85/barrel, but the market is trading with a significant risk premium. **SITUATION ANALYSIS:** The market is in a dual regime: on one hand, there is a long-term fundamental forecast (~$85), and on the other, a short-term speculative premium for geopolitical risk. Quotations show a critical dependence on political headlines rather than supply and demand factors. Record volatility (fluctuations of up to 15% per day) indicates extreme nervousness among market participants. **SHORT-TERM FORECAST:** - If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist: Brent in the range of $95-110 - In case of conflict de-escalation: correction to the $85-90 level - Maximum risk: a complete blockade of the strait could push prices above $120 **INVESTOR CONCLUSIONS:** The current situation requires increased caution — the market is reacting more strongly to political news than to fundamental indicators. Diversification and the use of hedging are recommended to protect against sharp fluctuations. The Platts Dubai crisis creates structural problems for pricing that may persist even after the geopolitical situation normalizes.